Objective - Critical infrastructure sectors form the backbone of national security and economic resilience, yet their dependence on petroleum inputs creates vulnerabilities that are inadequately measured. This study applies hypothetical extraction methodology to examine how petroleum supply disruptions would impact critical infrastructure across four developed economies (the United States, Japan, Germany, and the United Kingdom) and four developing economies (India, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand).

Methodology - Using input-output analysis, we analyze six essential infrastructure sectors, including inland transport, air transport, water transport, telecommunications, utilities, and public administration.

Findings - Our findings reveal striking differences that challenge conventional assumptions about energy security. Developing economies exhibit 2.56 times higher overall infrastructure vulnerability than developed economies. Transportation sectors consistently emerge as the most vulnerable across all countries, with inland transport ranking first in all countries. However, individual patterns reveal significant paradoxes: the United States exhibits unexpectedly high vulnerability despite domestic oil production, whereas the United Kingdom demonstrates exceptional resilience despite its dependence on imports.

Novelty - The research identifies two distinct "infrastructure development paradigms": efficiency-first models and resilience-integrated approaches. Malaysia exhibits extreme vulnerability, with inland transport scoring 37.88 on the Infrastructure Vulnerability Index, whereas the UK maintains comprehensive resilience at an average IVI of 1.13. The study reveals that developing economies exhibit "amplification effects," in which disruptions cascade with minimal dampening, whereas most developed economies demonstrate "dampening effects" that contain vulnerabilities. These findings provide essential insights for national security planning and energy transition policies, demonstrating that infrastructure resilience results from specific design choices rather than automatic outcomes of economic development.

Type of Paper - Empirical

Keywords: Critical Infrastructure; Petroleum Dependencies; Input-Output Analysis; Economic Vulnerability; Energy Security; Hypothetical Extraction; Infrastructure Resilience

JEL Classification: Q31, Q43.

URI: https://gatrenterprise.com/GATRJournals/JBER/vol10.4_5.html

DOI: https://doi.org/10.35609/jber.2026.10.4(5)

Pages 36–49